Force Majeure, Indian Way

During childhood, we used to be vaguely amused by a neighbourhood dog starting a barking concert whenever the moon appeared large in the sky, closer to full-moon days. This conductor-dog commenced the music with a few others soon joining the chorus and the orchestra had a raucous run for about thirty minutes.  Then, drained by their effort and absolutely baffled by the unyielding moon, which refused to acknowledge them in any way, they curled up and went to sleep. That was a ritual which recurred with amazing regularity for a number of years and we sought some edification from our parents once.  We were told that probably the lead-dog had been witness to some tragic event earlier, which took place when the moon was shining in all its glory.  What we were frequently witnessing was apparently a visceral reaction to something from the past.  Someone else told us that the reason why a dog chases speeding cars, all the time barking the head off, is that a mate might have been killed by one such car.  This hot pursuit is an act of retribution, even if it does not affect the car or occupants in any way, much like the moon in the other episode.

Why this random talk of dogs and their sporadic acts of angst??   Recently, that erudite gentleman and Reserve Bank of India (RBI) Governor who famously said `My name is Raghuram Rajan (RR) and I do what I do', decided to walk away from a possible second term.  This, despite his stellar first tenure of three years which saw India gaining stability and respect in the eyes of the whole world.  Not being privy to all the cloak-and-dagger action behind the scenes, pundits nevertheless generated all kinds of scenarios and dissected everything in sight, to arrive at their own concoction of what happened.  That was inevitable anywhere, but mandatory in India, where absolutely inane and puerile utterances by even low-lifes become eminently newsworthy.  Such bilge tends to occupy prime TV space for a week in some ten channels in multiple languages, keeping a bunch of otherwise unemployed and self-appointed celebrities pretending to be very busy!!

One very observant friend opined that all those loose barbs and unsubstantiated accusations by a senior ruling party member must have got RR's goat and he must have said in disgust `enough is enough'.  But, when one accepts a political assignment (the RBI governor is appointed by the Prime Minister), one cannot be super sensitive to criticism because you are in public domain; with all kinds of quasi experts mindlessly churning out their home-grown theories and palliatives while you are trying to prescribe some effective antidote to a real malady.  One should also be acutely aware of the powder keg (political pressure and consequent unpredictability) that is strapped to one's back for the duration of the assignment. Not being cognizant of that would be naivete bordering on stupidity.  RR, being neither naive nor stupid, was not decamping because of some loud, insane barks here and there -- he would not have expected unadulterated adulation sans any criticism for all his actions as RBI governor.  So, why was he not being the veritable moon, glowing down indifferently on the source of all the commotion below, unperturbed??  Running away like a wimp due to the vicious carping of a few, RR was not - that clearly militated against the personality involved.  Something more at play??  The choice of the specific high-decibel critic (not a petty politician, but another scholar and a respected individual in many quarters) and the fact that there was no serious effort to rein him in would lend credence to there being, what else..... Force Majeure??  More importantly, was there a moon-dog kind of relationship between the protagonists of this drama?  One never knows.

Another dear friend, who does not dole out opinions loosely, helpfully added that meritocratic bureaucrats like RR (not being pachyderms like seasoned politicians), deserve to be nurtured and protected by the political establishment instead of being exposed to random allegations as RR was.  That is required, if we want to see the rise of meritocracy in the government.  No doubt.  This implied that the Government itself was not keen on retaining RR for a second term, so it did not make any effort to shut down the shrill critical voices, exacerbating the situation and resulting in the current imbroglio.  The fact that the government wasted precious little time in saying adios to RR and began its search for the replacement pronto suggests that the vicious campaign in public might have been orchestrated from elsewhere.  Obviously RR was aware of the various sub-plots boiling and the build-up to this denouement must have started long back.  That would explain his gentlemanly exit on to the high ground.  But this author does not support the `protection is needed' theory.  People like RR are in position because of their ability to lead with their intellect and skills.  They invariably end up doing things their way, even if they are out of whack with the political managers' expectations and compulsions.  RR would have got protection if he, like a loyal political appointee, had probably moderated his focus on inflation to let interest rates fall earlier and more, because then he would have done the bidding of the government.  That would have helped the government to gloat that `good days are back'.  But, that would have been out of character for RR!!  By the same token, he would not have expected protection either??  So, Force Majeure, it probably was??

Talking of protection of a meritocrat who was intent on hacking his own blazing path forward, this scribe is reminded of the former Chief Election Commissioner, T.N.Seshan (TNS).  This gentleman was so focused on leaving his own individual stamp and imprimatur on the way elections were conducted in India, he did not think anything of turning against the same party (and all the other parties that were part of the system) which appointed him in the first place.  His rebellion against his political bosses was so severe in the context of elections that the latter pushed for a couple of legislations aimed only at bringing him to his heels, but did not succeed.  Could RR have followed that path?  Well, he is not cut out from the same cloth as TNS, when it comes to pugnacity, belligerence and a devil-may-care attitude, even though betterment of the system was/is their common objective.  RR, being suave and classier, reacted in his own way, by taking himself out of the scene whereas TNS continued to bulldoze the system against all odds.  May be the options were just not there for RR - Force Majeure definitely?  Then there is the case of Manmohan Singh - a supreme meritocrat, if there was one, in his earlier avatar.  But he contrived to compromise himself so seriously at every turn subsequently that all the lustre (and may be, a bit of his skin too) came off by the time he ended his career as the Prime Minister!!

Well, the damage is done and the goose is cooked, as my dear wife says, in terms of an embarrassing spectacle for the country, while simultaneously asserting that nobody is indispensable (meaning RR) and the politicians were always botching things up.  Pithy summary. She supports RR clearly in that development should not be seen purely in terms of generation of new jobs but it should also ensure that those struggling with god-given and man-made poverty at the bottom of the pyramid do not get stricken further by rising costs spiraling out of control.  Now, this author, even though not as smart as RR, knows what is good for him and he agrees completely, since this is a known Force Majeure closer home!!!